A leading think tank believes the North will see the unfortunate figure of 10 per cent in unemployment, within 5 years. The Centre for Economic and Business Research (CEBR) believes an amalgam of items will cause enough distress for high unemployment. These include public sector spending cuts, slow private sector growth, and British export demand decreasing.
The North-east, North-west, along with Yorkshire and the Humber, the West Midlands and Wales will experience less than stellar growth over the next 5 years, resulting in higher unemployment. This, estimated by the CEBR.
Manufacturing employment in certain areas has taken a pretty nasty shot through the recession with the West Midlands, in particular, seeing their unemployment soar. Although industrial output has been strong this year, the level of employment is still well below the days before recession.
Doug McWilliams, chief executive of the CEBR, commented on the public sector employment, saying: “Bankrolling public sector employment in the North through the tax base in the South is clearly not going to be possible over the near future. It will take some time for the private sector to adjust and fill the vacuum left once the public sector cuts are felt. This is likely to be an agonising transition.
Consumer confidence across the UK plays a vital role in the possibility of a double dip recession or not. A recent survey by GfK/NOP demonstrated greater confidence in the economy than expected. The surge of confidence though, just reverses the inability to feel confident which was reported in July. The confidence level is approximately sitting in an area where it was during the worst of the recession in 2009.