It was only a matter of time before bookmakers started a betting line on credit ratings, and it looks like Paddy Power which refers to itself as “Ireland’s largest bookmaker” has got the jump on its competitors. They have begun a line on which nation will be next to have its credit rating downgraded by the credit rating agency Standard & Poor’s.
Early favourite is France
The early favourite by Paddy Power is France, and they are offering 2-1 odds that the country will be downgraded from AAA to AA+. The reason France are at the top is because President Sarkozy of France has come out and stated that France will not be downgraded.
Paddy Power has set put France at the top of the pile but Canada and Britain, both of whom have been struggling with street riots, next on the downgrade list with odds of it happening at 7-2.
The United States have been given odds of 4-7 that a downgrade by Moody’s or Fitch rating agencies will become a reality before the next presidential election in 2012.
Paddy Power have said: “Early betting trends suggest that France could be next in the firing line, but the USA downgrade shows no country is safe.”
Interestingly, Europe’s microstate Liechtenstein and the Isle of Man and Guernsey, UK’s tax havens, have been set long shot odds of 100-1.
Irish bookmakers filling a hole in the market
The Paddy Power credit downgrade betting line has given Austria odds of 7-1; Denmark and Australia odds of 10-1,; Sweden and Finland odds of 25-1; Germany and Hong Kong odds of 33-1 and Switzerland odds of 40-1.
Clearly the Irish bookmakers have seen a whole in the market that they are now trying to fill, or they are acting will the iron is still hot and the credit rating subject is fresh on everyone’s minds. Regardless of the reasons of starting the betting line the interesting points to note are the odds given to some of Europe’s bigger nations.